Bonkers UMA Nonsense, Vol 73🧵 A NASCAR race took place Sunday. $10,000 in trades on Polymarket. Denny Hamlin won. Market paid out. Easy. But behind the scenes, this event is the largest & dumbest dispute in UMA history. $60,000 was on the line, 6 TIMES the underlying market.

The race ended 6:58pm Sunday. At 6:59pm, "GeopoliticsWizard", who watched the race, started proposing resolutions: Denny Hamlin Yes, rest of the 39 No. $750 each. 90mins later, a dispute alert rang out in UMA. The proposer was accused of not waiting for "post-race inspection."

All 40 of the driver markets were disputed. $750, the cost for each proposal, x 40 + $750, the cost for each dispute x 40 = $60,000 in total The winner of the dispute receives $40,000 The loser receives $0 UMA receives $20,000.

But, plot twist? There's no rule on needing to wait for inspection. Market appears to be resolvable based on NASCAR's site, which makes 0 mention of the results being unofficial (no notes, asterisks, etc). Most sportsbooks in the world use podium order, and IGNORE later DQs.

Second plot twist: The post-race inspection concluded at 8:26pm. Denny Hamlin still the winner. The first dispute? ...8:27pm. 😂 Smh. AFTER the results were all confirmed, the disputes began. One after another. They also re-proposed the 40 markets; they paid out 2 hrs later.

The disputers gambled that: 1. They could convince UMA to enforce an unwritten rule and 2. They could convince UMA to act differently than the standard in the industry and 3. They could blatantly make this money-grabbing play AFTER the results were confirmed 100% correct.

So what are the net effects of this? 1. GeopoliticsWizard goes from $15k in profits over the past year he's been using Polymarket to -$15k. The guy is very active, trading a lot of markets. Exact type of user you'd want. He used the protocol as intended, followed the rules as written, and submitted a market in good faith after watching it live and checking the official NASCAR results website. Thanks to this sketchy and pointless dispute, 25% of his balance is now evaporated. Of the $30k he lost, $20k heads to UMA. 2. UMA has become entirely enraptured by a rogue's gallery of scammy users, who they seem to side with on nearly every single dispute lately. The voting system is more centralized than ever, with a community more dormant than ever. On the rare circumstance where Polymarket doesn't weigh in (they didn't clarify here), UMA relies on users they "trust" to tell them what to do, and they comply. Unfortunately, the users they "trust" are the scammy regulars who hang around non-stop. Inevitably, those traders have very strong financial incentives when giving UMA instructions. The group of people that disputed spammed the discord heavily that it had to be "Too Early" and UMA voters did as they were told. It's a bad situation. And I hate to have to be writing this thread with all of the great news and growth surrounding prediction markets lately. But come on, the amateur hour resolution issues have to stop if these markets are going to 10x from here. It should not be remotely possible for someone to lose $30,000 on a dispute as silly as this.