$ETH Treasury Companies will bid the risk curve up so high by the end of this.
If you're betting on $ENA, the bet is that TradFi will want to move further out on the risk curve for stablecoins, and they'll express that with onchain stables over DeFi. But there's a lot to consider here. We can largely assume $ENA's $3.5B market cap (an $8B val) is from liquid funds and CT, so the hope in a pump from here is: 1) TradFi does move out on the risk curve for stablecoins (reasonable IMO) 2) TradFi bids stable tokens over DeFi (reasonable IMO) 3) Stable-related tokens can carry a similar premium to CRCL based on expected growth (reasonable IMO) 4) ENA is the bid and not SKY, XPL (Plasma), or another stable protocol (reasonable IMO) 5) TradFi bid is significant and outweighs the frequent token unlocks, assuming that creates some amount of sell pressure (hard to gauge IMO) 6) The bull doesn't just unwind and everything falls apart (hard to gauge IMO) CT alone doesn't have the capital to move an $8b token that much. If you bid $ENA here, you're either assuming massive growth or TradFi comes in. You can make a reasonable case for why they will or won't bid, but if you ultimately do assume TradFi wants stable tokens, $ENA is the best expression of that opinion. But there's more to consider than VC supply overhang. TLDR: I'm not explicitly bearish or bullish here, leaning more bullish towards TradFi bidding. However, I expect the large CT players (i.e., liquid funds) have already done their bidding. So this is a concentrated bet on TradFi.
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