The good lads from Falcon announced their Pendle sUSDf multiplier and it COMPLETELY flipped my original prediction on its head.
My assumed 1x multiplier? It's actually 𝟑𝟔𝐱.
Considering my first moonsheet was ALREADY profitable, YT-sUSDf buyers are in for a treat.
👇
🔢 The Numbers
Starting us off with what the people want, let's assume:
📌 30 Sep 25 TGE
📌 5% TGE allo
📌 @pendle_fi (great protocol)
We'll also assume FDV trades at a multiple of end TVL.
150-1500% RoI in 84 days?
Don't take my word for it - let's break it down.
💡 The Background
Here's a whirlwind history lesson on Pendle sUSDf:
> Consistently strong underlying yield (~10% APY)
> 36x Falcon Miles just announced
> Recent implied APY repricing
Generally cautious aping post-repricing... unless justifiable (which i think it is)
🫵 Daily Points
To account for daily points, I tallied all distributions of USDf and sUSDf across its various deployments.
From here, I now know total points per day across all deployments.
I also have a decent grasp on:
📌 Points/USDf/Day
📌 Points/sUSDf/Day
🧮 Current Points
Since Falcon does not yet have a current point balance, I manually calculated:
1. USDf supply
2. sUSDf supply
I multiplied this by Points/USDf (or sUSDf)/day from 🫵 accounting for on-mint points of USDf float.
Sum that up and we have CURRENT points.
📊 The Projection
From that, it's fairly trivial to project net return @ different FDV:TVL ratios (applied a 20% point buffer to be conservative).
RoIs @ different TGE dates:
1⃣ 30 Sep: 150-1,500%
2⃣ 31 Oct: 120-1,150%
3⃣ 30 Nov: 100-970%
4⃣ 31 Dec: 85-825%
hehe
🛑 UM ADMIN??
You're probably thinking to yourself "intern wtf are you smoking".
But consider this: @ 9.97% underlying yield, points $$$ to BREAKEVEN on $1k...
...is just $150
That's PRETTY limited downside if you ask me 🤷♂️
Now if @FalconStable is something YOU want to take advantage of, why not get yourself 9% BONUS points by using my shameless reflink:
Gentle reminder ALL of this is NFA - simply some musings by an anonymous intern.
NFA NLA NMA
Pendiddler | Pendle
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