The GEMI (Gemini) IPO today will be a key bellwether for crypto mkts.
GEMI has a v. tough path to profitability. An impartial analyst would consider it a highly problematic asset.
If GEMI closes at its highs, it signals insatiable retail/inst'l crypto demand. If it breaks $28 IPO price, pretty bearish
BTC's OI dominance of 38% has tapped its lows of the year, as insiders have heavily frontrun the $SOL, $WLFI, and $AVAX DAT's via perps
at $111b, overall perp OI is within a tick of its Aug 12 high ($112b)
this entire year, there has been a funny trend where 1) the market frontruns normal seasonality, 2) monthly seasonality seems to fail the first half of the month and everyone pronounces it dead, 3) seasonality violently reasserts itself after everyone has pronounced it dead.
This year, DAT flows were pretty disruptive to September flows, but organic DAT inflows feel exhausted. and while everyone knows 4Q seasonality is great, it's equally plausible that the DAT glut has pulled forward a lot of 4Q demand.
HYPE had a big opportunity to bring on a lot of new crypto inflows via Paxos/Venmo, at the cost of their own principles (USA-compliant USDH would mean HYPE would eventually have to become a regulated CEX, ie a Binance clone.) HYPE wisely rejected that, at a cost to near-term normie onboarding to crypto and HYPE's short-term profitability
volatility of crypto-related assets seems very underpriced for the next 1-2wks, imho.
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