We reviewed FDV performance across 7 tokens launched in the first half 2025, comparing launch valuations with current FDV, price movement, and unlock schedules.
This snapshot highlights how initial expectations are holding up, and where emission dynamics may be driving repricing. 🧵
🧭 Why track FDV post-launch?
•Launch FDV reflects projected value under low float
•Post-launch FDV reflects how the market prices future supply
•Unlock schedules shape float velocity
•FDV/Mcap divergence = embedded dilution risk
📊 $IP – The Only Gainer
Launch FDV: $1.90B → Current FDV: $2.92B (+55%)
Price: +75% | Circulating Supply: +18.6%
Notable for maintaining demand through unlocks.
Supply expanded by $866.1M over 6 months. An additional $452.8M (52.3% of current supply) set to unlock next year—watch for inflationary pressure ahead.
📉 $KAITO – Flat with Deflationary Behavior
Launch FDV: $1.67B → Current: $1.63B (–2.4%)
Price: –2.4% | Circulating Supply: unchanged
FDV, price, and supply remain static.
Yet ~$272.3M (68.6% of total supply) is scheduled to unlock in the next 12 months. No short-term inflation, but high release supply potential.
📉 $TRUMP – High Initial FDV, Deep Correction
Launch FDV: $28.9B → Current: $8.9B (–69%)
Price: –69% | Circulating Supply: unchanged
Price volatility was not impacted by change in supply.
$1.7B unlocked YTD; $3.7B (208.8% of current supply) unlocking in 2026. Token remains highly inflated on valuation relative to supply realities.
📉 $BERA – Largest Correction
Launch FDV: $4.29B → Current: $871M (–80%)
Price: –80% | Supply: +45%
Price and FDV declined in tandem.
$237M unlocked so far (45% of supply), with another $298.9M (135.1%) scheduled next year. Market appears unable to absorb emissions at current demand levels.
📉 $RED – Moderate Drift, High Unlock Pipeline
Launch FDV: $680M → Current: $296M (–56%)
Price: –56% | Supply: +27%
FDV and price tracked closely.
$65M unlocked so far; $58M (89.4% of supply) unlocking over the next 12 months. Supply pressure likely to persist absent significant demand shift.
📉 $LAYER – Dilution-Driven Devaluation
Launch FDV: $1.03B → Current: $653M (–36%)
Price: –38% | Supply: +20%
$164.6M unlocked to date.
$108.8M (68.1% of supply) unlocking over next 12 months. FDV decline appears driven by market repricing of unlock trajectory rather than sentiment alone.
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