This might be a hot take, but I believe Bitcoin's security model is likely to fail in the coming years. And the answer is Cardano.
Here’s the thread: As block rewards continue to shrink, there’s a real risk the security model breaks down. Bitcoin's governance is either too rigid or non-existent to fix this fundamental issue.
Simply put: The halvings steadily lower the block reward. But a high BTC price could lead to lower transaction volume, meaning fees won't be enough to make up for the lost rewards. This creates a serious security budget problem. Eventually, it could become more profitable to attack the network than to secure it.
Cardano has a similar foundation: a fixed total supply and a predictable inflation schedule. And like any decentralized network, more participation leads to greater security.
But here's the key difference: If Cardano were to face a security model issue like the one threatening Bitcoin, it has the governance structure to rapidly change the protocol's direction.
For example, if rising native coin prices make transaction fees a burden on the network, the community can vote to adjust the base fees through governance. These values are called protocol parameters.
Bitcoin risks becoming obsolete because it can't properly react to major technological, economic, or social shifts. Cardano, however, is structurally designed to adapt and evolve through its governance system.
In the end, Cardano is the only chain that truly inherits the core values of Bitcoin and evolves them to the next level. In the long run, this makes Cardano more sustainable and gives it the structure to adapt and improve in response to external changes a structure Bitcoin lacks.
There’s no such thing as technology that stays the same forever. Tech isn’t a religion. And Bitcoin might already be on its way to becoming outdated.

$BTC 는 향후 7~11년 내에 보안 문제로 붕괴할 것임.
충분히 설득력있는 주장 같은데... 대충 요약하면 다음과 같음.
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BTC 보안 모델은 붕괴 중임.
- 비트코인의 보안은 마이너 보상(블록 보상 + 수수료)에 의존하지만, 블록 보상은 4년마다 반감기로 감소 → 보안 예산이 계속 줄어듦.
- 수수료로 이를 대체해야 하지만, 현실적으로 높은 수수료는 지속 불가능함.
- 대부분의 사용자는 수수료 급등 시 네트워크를 이탈하게됨.
- 이로 인해 향후 채굴자 보상이 너무 적어져 공격이 유리해지는 시점이 도래할 것임.
결국 선택은 두 가지뿐임.
- 21M 공급 한도를 깨고 인플레이션 허용하거나, 보안 취약 상태로 남아 더블스펜딩·검열 공격을 받거나...
- 어느 쪽이든 BTC의 존재 가치를 훼손하고, 시장 신뢰를 잃게 됨
BTC는 초당 약 7건의 트랜잭션 처리 가능 → 매우 낮은 처리량
- 수천만 사용자가 동시 출금 시도 시, 거래 대기열이 수개월~수년까지 늘어남
- 가격 폭락 + 탈출 불가 + 패닉 → 악순환 → death spiral
- 해시레이트 감소 → 블록 생성 지연 → 체인 느려짐 → 더 큰 패닉 → 반복
BTC는 거버넌스도 중앙화됨.
- Bitcoin Core 개발팀이 실질적 통제권 보유하며, 블록 사이즈 논란 당시 대부분의 반대 목소리는 제거해버림.
- 6명이 GitHub 커밋 권한을 보유 = 기술 독재에 가까운 구조임.
- 이는 변화나 대응 불가능한 시스템을 만들었고, 장기적으로 위기 대응 능력을 상실하게됨.
BTC는 근본적으로 실패한 구조를 갖고 있으며, 변화할 수 있는 거버넌스도 부재함.
결국, 7~11년 안에 보안 예산 고갈 + bank run + chain split + 혼란이 동시에 발생할 수 있음.
따라서 BTC에서 탈출하고, 다른 솔루션을 찾아야함...
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