Honestly, one of the fastest ways I can tell how deep someone really is in crypto is by how they understand the difference between Alpha and Beta plays
I’ve seen people fade Kaito just to chase things like Wallchain, Giverep, or Cookie. Or skip Virtuals and go all in on Magic Newton. Some ignored Pumpfun and Bonkfun, then aped into another random derivative launchpad hoping for the same hype.
To me, that just shows they don’t fully grasp how narratives cycle.
There’s this bias people have, if something’s not trending on their feed, they assume they’re early to a sleeper gem. But unless the alpha is fully saturated, I don’t see why you’d drop it for a beta play with less traction and more risk.
And even if the alpha’s been farmed, you have to ask: does the next thing even have a solid narrative? Most don’t. Chasing just to be early isn’t conviction, it’s gambling too but it does pay off sometimes.
Look, I’m not claiming to be an expert. But from what I’ve seen over the years, projects in crypto need to either evolve, extend, or realign every 6 months or they risk falling off. The game moves fast.
That said, not everything is short-lived. NFT 1000x plays may be mostly gone, but I still see people clinging to that dream. Meanwhile, real IP plays , the ones with long-term identity, culture, and story behind them, they will come back. Might take time, but some of those are built to last.
Not everything is hype. Some things just need the right cycle to bounce back.

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