I'm basically running on an Austrian economics macro thesis of "fiat money is cooked", in the search for hard money.
If the macro thesis holds (which seems obvious to me given the U.S. debt situation) and the printing continues I expect the flight to "hard money" to continue, potentially leading to politically tumultuous times.
In such an environment self custody is very important (due to confiscation risk, which happened before for gold) and privacy becomes more and more important (confiscation risk, personal risk, etc.).
The hardest monies I have found are gold, Bitcoin, and Zcash, I allocated to all three.
I'm a big fan of DeFi and consider Aave a killer application. I just don't get the "value accrual story" for ETH and SOL, which is why I just use the platforms, but don't invest in the tokens.
Gold, Bitcoin, and Zcash are all good monies.
What do a lot of gold bugs, Bitcoin maxis, and (the soon to materialize) Zcash zealots miss?
These three monies are at different points on the adoption and risk curve. Doing an either/or analysis misses the point and is like comparing apples with oranges.
Gold as money has been around for thousands of years and with the current bull run it has outperformed the S&P500 in the last 25 years, which is pretty remarkable.
It simply looks good and has many properties which are desirable for money and after a while the network effects multiplied into gold becoming the "ultimate reserve asset".
However, it lacked one critical feature: You cannot send it over the internet.
Bitcoin came onto the scene over 15 years ago, solving the double-spending problem without a trusted third party, and being in price discovery mode and the beginning of the adoption s-curve since then.
The returns have been phenomenal. And the volatility gut wrenching. Both coming down over the years, as the asset matured.
But Bitcoin — digital gold — lacks one critical feature: privacy. And hand in hand with the lack of privacy comes reduced fungibility.
There are multiple contenders in the "marketplace of monies" to take the position of "private Bitcoin".
But just as Bitcoin was the first one that solved the double spending problem without a trusted third party, Zcash was the first one to optimally solve "ledger indistinguishability" — giving it a similar first mover advantage.
From an adoption, volatility, and price discovery perspective it's probably at the stage where Bitcoin was around 2017.
So which one is best?
You will most likely get good returns if you hold either asset for the mid- to long-term.
With higher expected returns and volatility as you move up the risk curve and being earlier on the adoption s-curve.
For me it's not an either/or question, I hold all three.
Physical gold for me is the safe bet that will even hold value if the internet stops working.
For Bitcoin I expect larger returns than for gold in the long run, if no major catastrophe occurs.
I expect the highest returns and volatility for Zcash — it feels like having a second chance to buy Bitcoin in the early days.
It comes with the corresponding risks, but it also represents a world in which I want to live in: a world where we have unstoppable private money.
Money that I can send around not just without the need for a trusted third party, but also without any third party looking.
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